Futurism—specifically in the early 20th century—was an art form that celebrated change and innovation in culture and society. However, the term has become more complex in the new millennium. Today, futurism is a broader concept that includes thought leaders and innovators such as writers, economists, scientists, and business leaders.
Futurists, like me, use the present to predict the future systematically. Using this perspective, I will discuss what I believe to be the future, which will be reflective of constantly changing tools, culture, and society. For any business to survive, we must innovate and improve within the society and conditions we live, or, for business consultants, “extend the growth curve.” These actions require imagination that artificial intelligence (AI) does not currently possess; however, AI does allow us to now more easily find the data to begin the process that will support change.
While my background has academic rigor, I base this hypothesis on extensive global experience in operating, planning, and modeling within the differing business environments of large U.S. corporations, public sector entities, and small- to medium-sized entrepreneurial organizations. This hypothesis involves the creation of policies and processes within organizations for more than 40 years.
The Future
We cannot consider future systems and ways of life in isolation; they exist on a continuum, evolving gradually rather than changing abruptly. Our lives will continually change due to a combination of technological innovations and sociological advances. Furthermore, there will constantly be newer technologies and processes to improve the old. As these new capabilities are implemented, their use and popularity tend to follow a pendulum moving from one extreme to the other, oscillating until reaching an equilibrium.
Consider the evolution of car technology. Vehicles and the overall auto industry have undergone clusters of advancements in design, safety, fuel type, driverless/assisted capabilities, and more. As a result, we are now dealing with at least a “second order” of complexity with multiple changing and overlapping technologies and factors to consider. I call this an “equilibrating continuum.”
While a theoretical physicist may use a “thought experiment” to try and explain this concept, I will do so by using payroll to discuss the business environment and technology.
Changing Business Environment
The COVID-19 pandemic was the catalyst to significantly change office environments globally. Like a pendulum swinging back and forth, businesses went from working in an office to fully remote, then to a hybrid work model. Companies are now insisting their workforce return to the office full-time.
As a global provider, we were able to work securely from anywhere, so we switched to working from home, later returning to the office for a few days per week. We also recognized that some people need to work more from the office (while learning) for operational and personal reasons.
In the future, the workload will decline as we move from a more manual approach towards full automation and integration with other business support systems. Just as with the advent of word processing in the 1980s, people will carry out a different type of work and will need to adjust. But exactly could those adjustments entail? It is possible that some organizations could move to a shorter working day for three to four days per week and better use their energies or continue to work long hours with half the amount of people. This is a huge social, economic, and political question. As we better understand the importance of the employee experience, happy employees mean greater profit and more resource, we should be able to take advantage of this virtuous cycle. This is something that will accelerate and could be offset by the growth of our industry and the need for changing skillsets, finding that equilibrium.
When dealing with ongoing operations, we often use ratios to provide an idea of a standard approach, and we have just introduced a system that will dramatically reduce the time taken to manage the entire process. This concept reduces the workload on our people and our clients, enabling greater flexibility and more time for improving communications. Most monopolies are temporary, and we must therefore be able to continuously refine, improve, and innovate.
Changing Technology
There is no escaping the fact that AI will be used more frequently in the future despite all the current concerns. AI has significant positive potential depending on how it is used and whether it can be controlled or kept to a specific “enclosed environment.” The importance of data science is growing, and with ever-improving analytics, we will better control not only the amount of work carried out but also what that work is. There are many, I believe correct, predictions that show that with improved automation and AI, we will require many more data scientists than payroll processors. Once again, “the pendulum will swing.” So, we will still need the “hard-earned” expertise to support this. However, it will consist of fewer people in a more consultative role.
The technology we have, which includes automation, self-service, data analysis, mobile apps, data, and increased breadth of service enables us to create sustainable value across organizations. This savings in resources is far more than what we can achieve within a particular area, such as global payroll, and represents a more integrated approach across all business functions. Furthermore, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) contributions can be measured in financial metrics, which will become increasingly important for the submission of company accounts, and the awareness and employment of younger employees.
Whereas, there will always be (unless catalysed) an economic inertia, these changes are likely to include an increase in the use of data scientists supporting the more extensive analytics on automated systems. This will come at the cost of payroll employees who manually carry out the tasks. However, there will also need to be experienced payroll people to work out what to do if things go wrong. You don’t need to know how a vehicle works to drive it, you can check elements of its performance, but you will need an expert to fix it. The global market is growing, and it is difficult to find people with the skills to manage this process, therefore the overall need for real payroll expertise will increase, offsetting some of the effects of automation. I would envisage a change in the global payroll professional’s role to become much broader, using both scientific and customer facing skills—that could be an interesting mix.
In conclusion, there are many more areas for discussion which affect businesses than just the business environment and technologies mentioned. These could include decentralization of people, organizations, and the size of companies. Economies of scale are replaced by infinitely scalable systems, agility, and the requirement of “programmed” innovation. I am excited by the future and intend to be part of it. Over the years, I have recognized and heard many incredible ideas and thoughts for the future, however, it is those who have critical thinking, courage, and resilience to implement these ideas who are the real futurists.